Ok, I should probably wait until they've announced results before predicting what the new Iraqi government will do, but I can't help myself.
I suspect that, shortly after they take power, they'll declare a 'timetable' of sorts for the withdrawl of US troops. While they may demand a token reduction in a safe Shiite area just to gain credibility (e.g. get the Brits out of Basra), I suspect they'll announce that the US troops will really begin to leave once the new constitution is ratified. This would have two advantages:
1 - It would give the religious Shiites 8-9 months to purge Allawi's ex-Bathist allies from the leadership of the Iraqi Army.
2 - It would, in effect, make the referendum on the constitution also a vote to kick the US troops out. This would provide incentive for many disaffected Sunnis to vote 'Yes', wouldn't it?
Well, I wonder how the statement from the Iraqi president yesterday to the effect that it would be madness to ask us to leave will affect your predictions, if at all:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=461403&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312
Posted by: Jennifer Hagstrom | February 02, 2005 at 12:22
I think there may be some selective headlining going on. Here's another take, focusing more on his comment that "[m]aybe by the end of the year we can see a gradual decrease in foreign forces in Iraq".
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aIXoQiC1jouw&refer=top_world_news
So it is not inconsistent with the prediction. Also, this guy isn't going to be part of the new government, to my knowledge.
Posted by: jon | February 02, 2005 at 13:23