Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani has shown himself to be an adept politician and a brilliant strategist. His three best moves so far:
Getting a Popular Vote - Last summer Proconsul Bremer was planning on having regional councils elect the new government. Al-Sistani demanded a popular vote, fearing that otherwise the Americans would manipulate the result by controlling council membership. Bremer resisted. Al-Sistani threatened to call for a general uprising among the Shiite population. We caved, Al-Sistani got his vote.
Taming Al-Sadr - Only 5 short months ago US troops had Muktada Al-Sadr and his Mahdi army under siege in Najaf. Al-Sistani got him to back down and agree to the political process, while at the same time getting the Americans to refrain from arresting him. This was absolutely necessary for this eleciton. Imagine what the election would have looked like if a sizeable Shiite community were boycotting it?
Brokering the UIA Alliance - Al-Sistani brokered the UIA alliance of Shiite religious parties (with a few secular hangers-on, like Chalabi) in order to prevent infighting between major factions (such as SCIRI and Al-Dawa) and ensure victory. It worked. No one else could have pulled it off.
Now the question is, how will he play out the next major stage, the writing of the constitution? On the one hand, his adeptness to date would lead me to suspect he'll manage to pull enough Sunni's and Kurds into the process to ensure the new constitution gets ratified. On the other hand, this will mark the first time the religious Shiites have held power in Iraq - will they be able to restrain themselves? We'll see.
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