Iraq - The Five Big Questions

If things go as planned, Iraq is 17 days away from electing a national assembly which will be charged with writing a permanent constitution. Many commentators have expressed the hope that the elections will help quell the insurgency. While I certainly share that hope, I think its extremely unlikely that the election will be the magical turning point the Bush administration seems to be expecting. I think its more likely that it will set in motion a series of events that could end in chaos or even civil war. How it unfolds will depend on many things, but it seems to me there are five key questions that will drive events. In no particular order:

Continuing US Involvement - Will the new government ask the US to leave, or is Al-Sistani too afraid that the insurgency will turn into another Baathist coup? And if they do ask us to leave, would the Bush administration be willing to? Or would they insist on sticking around at least until the new constitution was ratified to ensure that the country didn’t disintegrate?

 

The Sunni Insurgency - If the US were to leave, would the Sunni insurgency lose steam? While it seems likely that the many of the ‘unreconstructed Baathists’ would want to fight against a Shiite-dominated government, would they have as much success in recruitment without the occupation to use as a rallying cry? And whether the US stays involved or not, if the insurgency/counter insurgency starts to look increasingly like a Sunni vs. Shiite battle, where will that lead? Could Syrian/Saudi/Iranian involvement become more overt?

 

The Permanent Constitution - How will the new constitution get ratified? Remember – the interim constitution says that the permanent constitution can be blocked if it is rejected by two-thirds of the voters of three provinces. This was designed to give the Kurds veto power over the final constitution. But couldn’t this provision be used by the Sunnis to block a constitution which they did not take part in writing? Or will the Shiites repeal the rule, as they’ve already threatened to do?  And if so...

The Kurds - Will the Kurds stay in? They have said they will stay in as long as they retain veto power over the new constitution, but what happens if (when?) the Shiite-dominated government repeals that rule? If they declare independence, will the US use violence against them? What would Turkey do?

 

The Iranians - How much influence will Iran have over the new government? I suspect the answer is a lot, but what will it mean? The ties between Iraqi Shiite leaders and the Iranian clerics are strong and go back decades. Remember – Ayatollah Khomeini lived in Najaf for 12 years prior to the Iranian revolution. One of his students was Mohammed Al-Sadr, the slain father of Muqtada al-Sadr. And the United Iraqi Alliance, the Shiite coalition that will almost certainly dominate the new government, is led by the head of the SCIRI party, which was based in Tehran for 20 years.   

I’d be interested in people’s thoughts on these questions (or any others I’ve missed). I find it hard not to get increasingly pessimistic as I think through this. I could be wrong, and certainly hope that I am, but it seems to me that invading Iraq could very well be one of the gravest strategic errors the US has ever made.

Comments

[Jennifer Hagstrom]

I think re whether we'd stay in Iraq if asked to leave, you're overlooking a strategic possiblity: that is, would we insist on staying ostensibly for one of the reasons you've outlined, but in reality because it leaves our troops nice and close to Iran?

[jon]

An interesting point. Although I doubt an invasion of Iran is in the cards (rather they'll bomb and send special forces). I plan to blog on that this week.